The Premier League is on course to miss out on an additional place in next season’s Champions League following Arsenal’s elimination by Bayern Munich at the quarter-final stage on Wednesday.
Two nations will be awarded an extra fifth place in next season’s edition of Europe’s premier club competition, with the performance of Italian sides in Europe set to guarantee Serie A gains one of those slots.
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The second spot based on coefficients will either go to the Premier League or the German Bundesliga.
The Bundesliga’s average was marginally ahead of the Premier League’s going into this week’s last-eight ties, but the German nation extended that advantage in the rankings with Bayern’s victory over Arsenal.
Bayern drew in north London before beating Mikel Arteta’s side in the second leg to advance through to the semi-final stage. Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen have also progressed to the Europa League semi-finals following their 3-1 aggregate victory against West Ham United.
Added to that, Manchester City are out of the Champions League following their elimination to Real Madrid while Borussia Dortmund join their Bundesliga rivals Bayern in the last four after their elimination of Atletico Madrid.
With West Ham and Liverpool both exiting the Europa League, that would leave just Aston Villa in the Europa Conference League with three remaining German clubs.
All that would mean that the Bundesliga would be set to clinch the remaining Champions League place, with fifth spot in the Premier League instead qualifying for next season’s Europa League.
Tottenham Hotspur currently occupy fifth spot and sit three points behind fourth-place Villa with a game in hand.
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Coefficient rankings for 2023-24
(Updated on April 18)
Why are there extra Champions League places on offer?
The Champions League will expand from the 32-team format to 36 teams at the beginning of next season.
Of those four extra group-stage slots, one will be given to the league that finishes this season fifth in UEFA’s country ranking, which combines coefficient points accrued over the past five seasons.
One will be earned by a domestic title winner from one of the continent’s less prominent top flights via the ‘champions path’ qualifiers. The remaining two will go to the leagues whose clubs perform best across this season’s European competitions.
These latter two are being called the ‘European Performance Spots’ by UEFA and could see the fifth-placed Premier League team progress directly into next season’s new-look group stage.
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Which nations are leading the race for an extra Champions League place?
Heading into this week’s second legs, Italy were almost guaranteed an extra Champions League spot next season, while Germany and England were neck and neck (on 16.785 and 16.750 points).
Germany have now edged ahead of England following Bayern’s win over Arsenal and Borussia Dortmund’s victory over Atletico Madrid on Tuesday.
Spain’s La Liga had three of the eight Champions League quarter-finalists this season, but the performance of its teams in the Europa League and Europa Conference League makes it almost impossible for them to break into the top two places in this season’s coefficient.
England had the most representatives in European competition at the beginning of the season (eight), but their seasonal coefficient was hurt by Newcastle United and Manchester United finishing bottom of their Champions League groups. Had they finished third, they would have entered the Europa League knockout stages, thus giving both sides opportunities to accrue more points.
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Of the six teams who made it past Christmas, only Brighton & Hove Albion have been knocked out. They did at least add a couple of coefficient points to the tally by winning 1-0 against Roma in the second leg of their Europa League round-of-16 tie.
Why were the Champions League quarter-finals so important?
Before the quarter-finals began, Opta made England considerable favourites (70.6 per cent, with Germany on 29.1 per cent) to earn the extra fifth Champions League spot for next season, but the underperformance of Premier League sides in the first legs of the quarter-final ties allowed the Bundesliga clubs to close the gap.
If Arsenal had gotten the better of Bayern and Manchester City had beaten Real Madrid they would have faced each other in the semi-finals, guaranteeing an English club would make the final. That should have sealed a fifth Champions League spot for England, particularly if Atletico had knocked out Dortmund on Tuesday.
However, Arsenal and Man City both exited, while Dortmund overcame a first leg deficit to progress to the semi-finals with a 5-4 aggregate victory over Atletico.
England will also not have representation in the Europa League semi-finals. Liverpool were beaten 3-1 over two legs to Atalanta, while West Ham failed to beat Alonso’s Leverkusen, a team who are yet to lose a game in any competition this season.
Aston Villa, however, are continuing to go well in the Conference League, reaching the semi-finals after defeating Lille 4-3 on penalties.
How can coefficient points be accrued?
The coefficient is worked out as an average rather than a total to cancel out the advantage gained by nations with more European representatives. The equation is simple: the number of points accumulated by teams in a nation divided by the number of competing teams.
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So, as eight English teams were competing in Europe at the start of the season, each of their points are divided by eight.
Here is how each country accumulates those points:
UCL = UEFA Champions League, UEL = UEFA Europa League, UECL = UEFA Europa Conference League
2 – All wins from the group stage (UCL, UEL, UECL)
1 – All wins in qualifying and play-off matches (UCL, UEL, UECL)
1 – All draws from the group stage (UCL, UEL, UECL)
0.5 – All draws in qualifying and play-off matches (UCL, UEL, UECL)
4 – Group stage bonus participation (UCL)
4 – Round of 16 bonus participation (UCL)
4 – Group winners (UEL)
2 – Group runners-up (UEL)
2 – Group winners (UECL)
1 – Group runners-up (UECL)
1 – Each round clubs reach from the round of 16 (UCL, UEL)
1 – Each round clubs reach from the semi-finals (UECL)
(Alex Grimm/Getty Images)